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World Floating Production Market Forecast 2015-2019

$5350 - $5350

Release Date

24-02-2015

Delivery Format

PDF

Geographical Coverage

Global

Pricing

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Floating Production Deployment Spend to total $81 Billion 2015-2019 but Orders in Decline

Douglas-Westwood’s new World Floating Production Market Forecast 2015-2019 forecasts that despite the current low oil price environment, between 2015 and 2019 $81 billion (bn) will be spent on FPS units – an increase of 73% compared to 2010-2014. The value of annual installations is projected to grow from nearly $12bn in 2015 to $21bn in 2017 before declining to $17bn in 2019. Projects already ordered will account for much of this spend.

Despite Capex growth, the outlook this year for orders is poor. The low oil price is expected to impact the market, leading to a number of delayed project sanctions. This can be seen in the declining number of orders for 2015 and subsequent installation decline in 2018. Projects already under construction are unlikely to be affected.

FPSOs represent by far the largest segment of the market both in numbers (87 installations) and forecast Capex (81%) during 2015-2019. TLPs account for the second largest segment of Capex (9%) with FPSSs third (7%).

Latin America will see nearly a third of the 110 installations forecast and 32% of the projected Capex. Asia accounts for nearly a quarter of forecast installations, but only 13% of spend. Africa is important in value terms, with 22% of the projected Capex. Western Europe is expected to form 15% of forecast spend. Deepwater expenditure will make up 68% of the global FPS market.

Financing remains a challenge for leasing contractors and smaller E&P companies as a result of the lower oil prices. Low oil prices have placed additional strain on company budgets and greater efforts are being made to ensure delays and cost over-runs are avoided. Local content requirements are also pushing up prices and extending lead times, particularly in Brazil.

The World Floating Production Market Forecast 2015-2019 report is now in its 13th Edition and is supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation and includes:

Drivers & indicators – a review of factors influencing the floating production market including global energy demand; continued development of offshore reserves; oil & gas prices, supply & demand; Brazilian activity, the role of deepwater.
Operator analysis – Capex for the leading FPS operators, historic, forecast and by region and water depth.
The FPS supply chain – detailed analysis of the FPS supply chain, outlining the EPC firms, shipyards, lease contractors, topside fabricators and their respective capabilities.
Leasing & financing – the issues and future outlook for financing of the sector; analysis of major leasing contractors, their assets and a review of prospective vessel redeployments.
Regional analysis – with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe

Why purchase the World Floating Production Market Forecast?

DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is essential for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, offshore engineering, construction, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, oil & gas companies, lease contractors, shipbuilders and agencies & government departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

Unique and proprietary data – updated year-round from published sources a+nd insight gained from industry consultation.
Detailed methodology – analysis is based on DW’s in-house Oil & Gas database which details around 700 FPS projects. The data feeds into the market model to generate forecasts of floating production systems in each region of the world. Expenditure is allocated both to year of order and year of installation
Comprehensive analysis – comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year coverage of floating production capital expenditure.
Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.

1 Summary and Conclusions 8
Summary 9
Conclusions 10
2 Macro Economic Overview 11
Global Energy Demand Drivers: Population & GDP Growth 12
From Black to Green 13
Oil – Supply & Demand 14
Oil Majors – End of Business as Usual? 15
The Move to Offshore Oil & Gas 16
The Move to Deepwater 17
Oil & Gas Challenges 18
Brazilian Activity 19
3 FPS Types and Applications 20
Offshore Production Platforms 21
The FPS Lifecycle 22
FPS Concept Selection 23
Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Vessels (FPSOs) 24
Types of FPSO 25
Floating Production Semi-Submersibles (FPSS) 26
Types of FPSS 27
Spars 28
Types of Spars 29
Tension Leg Platforms (TLPs) 30
Types of TLP 31
Types of Floating Production Systems – Summary 32
FPS Applications 33
4 Leasing and Financing 34
Financing 35
FPS Leasing 36
Major Leasing Contractors 37
Redeployments of Leased Units 40
5 The FPS Supply Chain 41
The FPS Supply Chain42
Contractor Overview 43
FPS Shipyards & Construction Facilities 44
Local Content – FPS Construction 45
6 FPS Components 46
Hulls 47
Topsides 48
Mooring Systems 49
Critical Path Equipment Lead Times 50
Riser Systems 51
7 Transportation, Installation & Commissioning 52
Transportation, Installation & Commissioning 53
Spar Installation 54
8 FPS Fleet 55
The FPS Fleet 56
Fleet Analysis: Operator & Water Depth Distributions 57
9 Market Forecast 58
Market Forecast 59
Delays to Sanctioning & Commissioning 60
The Global FPS Market by Region 61
The Global FPS Market by Vessel Type 62
FPSOs 63
FPSO Capex Breakdown 64
FPSSs 65
FPSS Capex Breakdown 66
Spars 67
Spar Capex Breakdown 68
TLPs 69
TLP Capex Breakdown 70
Africa 71
Asia 72
Australasia 73
Latin America 74
Middle East 75
North America 76
Western Europe 77
Operator Analysis 78
The Deepwater FPS Market 79
10 Appendix 80
Floating Production Prospects 81
Data and Text Conventions 84

Table 1: Majors’ Oil Production 15
Table 2: Track Record of Project Installation (Excluding Extended Well Tests) 19
Table 3: Major Leasing Contractors & Their Units 38
Table 4: FPS Competitive Landscape (list not exhaustive) 43
Table 5: Typical Mooring System Designs by FPS Type 49
Table 6: Nine FPSO projects with delays 60
Table 7: Global FPS Capex by Region 2014-2019 61
Table 8: Global FPS Installations by Region 2014-2019 61
Table 9: Global FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2014-2019 62
Table 10: Global FPS Installations by Vessel Type 2014-2019 62
Table 11: FPSO Capex by Region 2014-2019 63
Table 12: FPSO Installations by Region 2014-2019 63
Table 13: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2014-2019 64
Table 14: FPSS Capex by Region 2014-2019 65
Table 15: FPSS Installations by Region 2014-2019 65
Table 16: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2014-2019 66
Table 17: Spar Capex by Region 2014-2019 67
Table 18: Spar Installations by Region 2014-2019 67
Table 19: Spar Capex by Component Type 2014-2019 68
Table 20: TLP Capex by Region 2014-2019 69
Table 21: TLP Installations by Region 2014-2019 69
Table 22: TLP Capex by Component Type 2014-2019 70
Table 23: FPS Capex – Africa 2014-2019 71
Table 24: FPS Installations – Africa 2014-2019 71
Table 25: FPS Capex – Asia 2014-2019 72
Table 26: FPS Installations – Asia 2014-2019 72
Table 27: FPS Capex – Australasia 2014-2019 73
Table 28: FPS Installations – Australasia 2014-2019 73
Table 29: FPS Capex – Latin America 2014-2019 74
Table 30: FPS Installations – Latin America 2014-2019 74
Table 31: FPS Capex – Middle East 2014-2019 75
Table 32: FPS Installations – Middle East 2014-201975
Table 33: FPS Capex – North America 2014-2019 76
Table 34: FPS Installations – North America 2014-2019 76
Table 35: FPS Capex – Western Europe 2014-2019 77
Table 36: FPS Installations – Western Europe 2014-2019 77
Table 37: Leading FPS Operators 2014-2019 78
Table 38: Deepwater FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2014-2019 79
Table 39: Deepwater FPS Capex by Region 2013-2018 79
Table 40: Floating Production Prospects 2015-2019 81Figure 1: Global FPS Capex by Region 2010-2019 9
Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand 1965-2012 12
Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region 12
Figure 4: The Changing Energy Mix 13
Figure 5: Climate Change (Temperature Change) 13
Figure 6: Oil Price & Demand 14
Figure 7: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2014 14
Figure 8: Oil Discoveries & Production 15
Figure 9: Control of Oil Reserves 15
Figure 10: Global Oil Supply – Onshore/Offshore 1965-2020 16
Figure 11: Global Deepwater Capex by Region 2009-2018 16
Figure 12: Subsea Completed Wells by Water Depth 17
Figure 13: Oil & Gas Production vs E&P Spend 18
Figure 14: Skilled Workers Age Category 18
Figure 15: Brazillian Offshore Basins19
Figure 16: The FPS Lifecycle 22
Figure 17: Completion Strategy and FPS Concept Selection 23
Figure 18: Typical Layout of an FPSO 24
Figure 20: Typical Layout of an FPSS (Deep Draft) 26
Figure 19: Typical Pontoon Arrangements 26
Figure 21: Typical Layout of a Spar (Truss) 28
Figure 22: Typical Layout of a TLP (Dry-tree) 30
Figure 23: Typical Lending Cycles in the Offshore Sector 35
Figure 24: Major Leasing Contractors 37
Figure 25: Leased Units on Contract by Region 37
Figure 26: Major Leasing Contractors’ Vessels Available for Redeployment (2015-2019) 40
Figure 27: The FPS Supply Chain 42
Figure 28: Major Shipbuilding Countries 44
Figure 29: Typical Layout of Topside Modules 48
Figure 30: Spar Installation 54
Figure 31: Global FPS Fleet 56
Figure 32: Operator Distribution of FPS Fleet 57
Figure 33: Water Depth Distribution of FPS Fleet by Region 57
Figure 34: Global FPS Installation Capex by Region 2010-2019 61
Figure 35: Global FPS Installation Capex by Vessel Type 2010-2019 62
Figure 36: FPSO Capex by Region 2010-2019 63
Figure 37: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2010-2019 64
Figure 38: FPSS Capex by Region 2010-2019 65
Figure 39: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2010-2019 66
Figure 40: Spar Capex by Region 2010-2019 67
Figure 41: Spar Capex by Component Type 2010-2019 68
Figure 42: TLP Capex by Region 2010-2019 69
Figure 43: TLP Capex by Component Type 2010-2019 70
Figure 44: FPS Capex – Africa 2010-2019 71
Figure 45: FPS Capex – Asia 2010-2019 72
Figure 46: FPS Capex – Australasia 2010-2019 73
Figure 47: FPS Capex – Latin America 2010-2019 74
Figure 48: FPS Capex – Middke East 2010-2019 75
Figure 49: FPS Capex – North America 2010-2019 76
Figure 50: FPS Capex – Western Europe 2010-2019 77
Figure 51: Leading FPS Operators Capex 2010-2019 78
Figure 52: Leading FPS Operators 2015-2019 by Region78
Figure 53: Deepwater FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2010-2019 79
Figure 54: Deepwater FPS Capex by Region 2010-2019 79

Publisher

Douglas-Westwood Ltd