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World Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast 2015-2020

$19660 - $19660

Release Date

12-06-2015

Delivery Format

PDF

Geographical Coverage

Global

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Modest Growth in Offshore Accommodation Market Despite Capex Slowdown
Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecast in their new World Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast that over the period
2015 to 2020 demand for offshore accommodation vessels will average almost 42,000 Personnel on Board (PoB) per
year. An increase of 14% compared to the preceding six-year period.
Report author, Kathryn Symes, commented, “Despite a peak between 2016 and 2018, the market will plateau towards
2020 as decreasing fixed platform installations and capital expenditure (Capex) restrictions lead to a decline in
construction support.
“Offshore accommodation units are utilised throughout a field lifecycle in both the operational expenditure (Opex) and
Capex stages. Over the forecast period Opex-driven Life of Field (LoF) support will continue to dominate PoB
requirements, accounting for 73% of demand, largely driven by the vast installed base of fixed platforms.
“Operators will demand temporary accommodation support in order to minimise platform downtime during maintenance
and modification work, ensuring continuity of production. Accommodation units, utilised to support hook-up and
installation of platforms and subsea infrastructure, are more susceptible to oil price declines and will account for 27% of
PoB requirements over the period.
“Asia accounts for the largest share of accommodation demand in the next six years, at 26%, due to the large number of
installed platforms. The large tonnage of platforms in Western Europe, the substantial small fixed platform population in
North America and increasing deepwater production in Africa are also key.
“Although a decline in Capex-focused operations is expected to slow demand for accommodation units, Opex operations,
such as maintenance and modifications, will drive continuing global demand across accommodation types through to
2020.”
Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecast that over the period 2015 to 2020 demand for offshore accommodation vessels will average almost 42,000 Personnel on Board (PoB) per year. An increase of 14% compared to the preceding six-year period. Despite a peak between 2016 and 2018, the market will plateau towards 2020 as decreasing fixed platform installations and capital expenditure (Capex) restrictions lead to a decline in construction support.

Offshore accommodation units are utilised throughout a field lifecycle in both the operational expenditure (Opex) and Capex stages. Over the forecast period Opex driven Life of Field (LoF) support will continue to dominate PoB requirements, accounting for 73% of demand, largely driven by the vast installed base of fixed platforms.

Operators will demand temporary accommodation support in order to minimise platform downtime during maintenance and modification work, ensuring continuity of production. Accommodation units, utilised to support hook-up and installation of platforms and subsea infrastructure, are more susceptible to oil price declines and will account for 27% of PoB requirements over the period.

Asia accounts for the largest share of accommodation demand in the next six years, at 26%, due to the large number of installed platforms. The large tonnage of platforms in Western Europe, the substantial small fixed platform population in North America and increasing deepwater production in Africa are also key.

The World Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast 2015-2020 analyses the supply and demand for jackups / liftboats, barges (no DP), barges (DP), monohulls and semisubmersible accommodation units. Regional PoB requirements are split by accommodation unit and the type of work scope, including well servicing, modifications, maintenance, EOR and construction. The report includes:

Macro-economic overview – analysis of the global macro-economic issues currently impacting the offshore accommodation market including: global energy demand and E&P trends, oil & gas production and prices and regional offshore production analysis.
Drivers of offshore accommodation – an in-depth discussion of the factors encouraging demand for accommodation units throughout the asset lifecycle: offshore wells drilled, offshore asset installations, fixed & floating platform installations and MMO expenditure.
Market fundamentals – overview of accommodation units including definitions, key specifications and factors determining the suitability and choice of accommodation unit.
Supply review – supply side trends including competitive supply breakdown by accommodation unit and order book analysis.
Accommodation market forecast – PoB demand by accommodation unit and work scope 2015-2020 with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.

Why purchase the Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast?

Douglas-Westwood’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

An essential report – for financial institutions, vessel contractors, engineering companies, oil & gas companies and government agencies & departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

Unique and proprietary data – updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
Detailed methodology – the report uses research from our own offshore database for fixed and floating platforms; an information system exclusive to DW, to form the basis of the models. Assumptions used to generate market demand are the result of our primary and secondary research. Demand-side analysis by work scope and accommodation unit provides a metric on which to establish future opportunities and provide a context for market share assessment.
Comprehensive market forecasts – examination, analysis and 12-year coverage of PoB demand, with hindcasts back to 2009.
Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.

1 Summary & Conclusions 7
Summary 8
Conclusions 9

2 Macro Economic Overview 10
Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand 11
Natural Gas 12
Oil & Gas Production 13
Regional Offshore Production Outlook 14
Oil & Gas Challenges 15
Oil price volatility 16
Capex Compression 17

3 Drivers of Offshore Accommodation 18
Asset Lifecycle Overview 19
Offshore Wells Drilled20
Offshore Asset Installations 21
Fixed & Floating Platform Population 22
Offshore Maintenance, Modifications & Operations 23

4 Market Fundamentals 24
Accommodation Unit Definitions 25
Key Decision Criteria 26
Regional Preferences 27
Key Specifications 28
Workscope Suitability 29
Accommodation Unit Day Rates 30
Accommodation Hub Concept 31

5 Supply Review 32
Vessel Suitability 33
Vessel Suitability 34
Regional Offshore Accommodation Supply Drivers 35
Supply Methodology 36
Jackups & Liftboats – Supply Side Trends 37
Barges – Supply Side Trends 38
Monohull Vessels – Supply Side Trends 39
Semisubmersibles – Supply Side Trends 40
Orderbook 41
Low PoB Units 42

6 Accommodation Market Forecast 43
Model Summary44
Global PoB Demand: by Accommodation Unit 45
Global PoB Demand & Supply 46
Global PoB Demand: by Workscope 47
Global PoB Demand: by Region 48
Africa PoB Demand 49
Asia PoB Demand 50
Australasia PoB Demand 51
Eastern Europe & FSU PoB Demand52
Latin America PoB Demand 53
Middle East PoB Demand 54
North America PoB Demand 55
Western Europe PoB Demand 56

7 Appendix 57
Data and Text Conventions 58

Table 1: Accommodation Unit Preference by Region 27
Table 2: Large Accommodation Units 36
Table 3: Supply Overview: Jackups & Liftboats 37
Table 4: Supply Overview: Barges 38
Table 5: Supply Overview: Monohull Vessels 39
Table 6: Supply Overview: Semisubmersibles40
Table 7: Supply Overview: Orderbook – All Units 41
Table 8: Supply Overview: Barges 42
Table 9: Global PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 45
Table 10: Global PoB Demand and Supply 2015-2020 46
Table 11: Global PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 47
Table 12: Global PoB Demand by Region 2014-2020 48
Table 13: Africa PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 49
Table 14: Africa PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 49
Table 15: Asia PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 50
Table 16: Asia PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 50
Table 17: Australasia PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 51
Table 18: Australasia PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 51
Table 19: Eastern Europe & FSU PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 52
Table 20: Eastern Europe & FSU PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 52
Table 21: Latin America PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 53
Table 22: Latin America PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 53
Table 23: Middle East PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 54
Table 24: Middle East PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 54
Table 25: North America PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 55
Table 26: North America PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 55
Table 27: Western Europe PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 56
Table 28: Western Europe PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 56Figure 1: Global PoB Demand by Region 2009-2020 8
Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035 11
Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region, 1965-2013 11
Figure 4: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/mwh) 12
Figure 5: Natural Gas Prices 1996-2014 ($/mbtu) 12
Figure 6: Oil & Gas Production by Offshore and Onshore 2000-2020 13
Figure 7: Offshore Oil & Gas Production by Region 2000-2020 13
Figure 8: Offshore/Onshore Production Split 2015 13
Figure 9: Oil & Gas Production vs E&P Spend 15
Figure 10: Skilled Workers Age Category 15
Figure 11: Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2007 – February 2015 16
Figure 12: Oil Price to Balance Budgets vs Current Brent at $65 16
Figure 13: Cash Return on Cash Invested (CROCI) and the Brent Oil Price 1965-2017 17
Figure 14: Shallow Water (<500m) Wells Drilled 2000-2020 20 Figure 15: Deepwater (>500m) Wells Drilled 2000-2020 20
Figure 16: Fixed and Floating Platform Installations 2002-2020 21
Figure 17: Subsea Tree Installations and Subsea Capex 2002-2020 21
Figure 19: Total Platform Population byRegion, 2015 22
Figure 18: Fixed and Floating Platform Population by Region, 2015-2020 22
Figure 20: Offshore MMO Expenditure on Fixed and Floating Platforms 2009-2020 23
Figure 21: Key Accommodation Specifications 28
Figure 22: Typical Day Rate Range by Unit Type 30
Figure 23: Accommodation Hub Concept 31
Figure 24: Potential Regions for the Accommodation Hub Concept 31
Figure 25: Accommodation Fleet Construction Cycle 34
Figure 26: Supply of Accommodation Units 36
Figure 27: Global PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 45
Figure 28: Average Global PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit, 2009-14 & 2015-20 45
Figure 29: Global PoB Demand and Supply 2009-2020 46
Figure 30: Global PoB Demand by Workscope 2009-2020 47
Figure 31: Global PoB Demand by Workscope, 2009-2014 and 2015-2020 47
Figure 32: Global PoB Demand by Region 2009-2020 48
Figure 33: Global PoB Demand by Region, 2009-2014 and 2015-2020 48
Figure 34: Africa PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 49
Figure 35: Asia PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 50
Figure 36: Australasia PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 51
Figure 37: Eastern Europe & FSU PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 52
Figure 38: Latin America PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 53
Figure 39: Middle East PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 54
Figure 40: North America PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 55
Figure 41: Western Europe PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 56

Publisher

Douglas-Westwood Ltd