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World Subsea Hardware Market Forecast 2015-2019

$5350 - $5350

Release Date

09-04-2015

Delivery Format

PDF

Geographical Coverage

Global

Pricing

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Subsea Hardware Spend To Remain High, Due to Order Backlog

Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecasts global subsea hardware Capex will total $145 billion (bn) between 2015 and 2019. This represents growth of more than 27% compared with the preceding five-year period. The 350 subsea tree installations in 2014 represent the highest volume of installed units on record, a trend expected to continue until 2018 when lower orders in the current commercial environment will drive a decline in trees installed for that year.

The crude oil price decline, apparent since June 2014, presents a major challenge for operators of subsea developments. Subsea projects are typically among the most capital intensive and technologically challenging in the industry. As operators (and their investors) have increased focus on cash flow, the higher upfront costs associated with these projects have left them vulnerable to deferrals and cancellations. Tree orders in 2014 totalled 233, the lowest volume for a decade.

Despite these near-term concerns, the long-term fundamentals of the subsea hardware industry are strong and represent a growth story as they benefit from continued hydrocarbon demand growth, declining conventional reserves and technological improvements. Over the next five years, development activity in the established deepwater provinces, coupled with the start of field development in frontier areas, such as the Eastern Mediterranean and East Africa, will support expenditure.

Subsea hardware spend will be the highest in Africa, Asia and Latin America, with the three regions combining to form almost half of the global total. Expenditure continues trending towards deeper waters with around 42% of total spend in the next five years targeting projects in water depths greater than 1,000 metres.

Subsea production equipment, SURF and pipelines each attract approximately one third of all expenditure by component, with higher capacity and capability equipment a theme throughout the sector. The development of remote fields, the addition of new project phases and the tie-back of satellite fields into subsea hubs continue to support SURF expenditure over the forecast period.

The World Subsea Hardware Market Forecast 2015-2019 details specific subsea hardware trends by region and component supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation, and includes:

Drivers & indicators – a discussion of factors influencing subsea hardware installation activity including oil & gas prices and deepwater production to offset declining production from onshore and shallow water basins.
Supply chain analysis – detailing the key players within the subsea hardware market and analysis of top manufacturers’ subsea orders and backlog.
Regional & component forecasts – by region, noting key projects & operators and by subsea production hardware (trees, controls, templates & manifolds, flying leads, jumpers), SURF and trunklines Capex and units/km installed. Each regional forecast is broken down by water depth category.

Why purchase the World Subsea Hardware Market Forecast?

DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is relevant to strategy teams within subsea manufacturing, subsea services, drilling operations and offshore construction companies as well as financial institutions.

Our proven approach includes:

Unique and proprietary data – updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
Detailed methodology – based on a thorough scrutiny of data which enables forecasts to be established on a project-by-project basis, taking into account factors such as project size, location, progress to date, operator workload, etc. DW takes a conservative view of the prospects for the subsea sector, to reflect the delays and schedule overruns that are fairly common in the industry.
Comprehensive market forecasts – examination, analysis and 10-year coverage of expenditure by region, depth and hardware type: subsea production hardware, SURF and trunklines.
Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.

More about Douglas-Westwood’s Capabilities in the Subsea Sector

DW’s research team monitors and analyses every aspect of the global subsea market from design engineering, seabed equipment procurement, construction & installation, to inspection repair & maintenance (IRM). Through our commissioned research we assist engineering houses, Oilfield equipment manufacturers, E&P operators and installation contractors in determining market dynamics, and assessing the supply and demand for subsea equipment and associated services on regional and country-specific basis. Our clients include major subsea equipment manufacturers, subsea engineering houses, ROV & diving contractors and E&P operators.

1 Summary & Conclusions 7
Summary 8
Conclusions 9
2 Drivers & Indicators 10
Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand 11
Offshore Oil & Gas12
Oil – Supply & Demand 13
Natural Gas 14
Oil & Gas Challenges 15
Impact of Oil Prices on Companies 16
Importance of Brazil to the Subsea Market 17
Deepwater Focus Areas 18
3 Subsea Development 19
Why Subsea? 20
Offshore Production Options 22
Subsea Production Hardware 23
SURF and Pipelines 24
4 Supply Chain 25
The Subsea Equipment Supply Chain 26
Subsea Production, SURF and Pipeline Competitive Landscape 27
Subsea Tree Market Trends 28
5 Subsea Hardware Market Forecast 29
Methodology: DW Forecasting Process 30
Methodology: Expenditure Forecasts 31
Methodology: Market Modelling 32
Hardware Assumptions 33
The World Subsea Hardware Market – Regional Analysis 34
The World Subsea Hardware Market – Component Analysis 35
The World Subsea Hardware Market – Water Depth and Units 36
Africa – Capex 37
Africa – Units 38
Asia – Capex 39
Asia – Units 40
Australasia – Capex 41
Australasia – Units 42
Eastern Europe & FSU – Capex 43
Eastern Europe & FSU – Units 44
Latin America – Capex 45
Latin America – Units 46
Middle East – Capex 47
Middle East – Units 48
North America – Capex 49
North America – Units 50
Norway – Capex 51
Norway – Units 52
Rest of Western Europe – Capex 53
Rest of Western Europe – Units 54
United Kingdom – Capex 55
United Kingdom – Units 56
6 Appendix 57
Data and Text Conventions 58

Table 1: Subsea Production and SURF Competitive Landscape 27
Table 2: Pipeline Competitive Landscape 27
Table 3: Global – Subsea Capex by Region, 2014-2019 34
Table 4: Global – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-2019 35
Table 5: Global – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2014-2019 36
Table 6: Africa – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-201937
Table 7: Top Four African Fields by Subsea Tree Installations 38
Table 8: Africa – Subsea Components, 2014-2019 38
Table 9: Asia – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-2019 39
Table 10: Top Four Asian Fields by Subsea Tree Installations 40
Table 11: Asia – Subsea Components, 2014-201940
Table 12: Australasia – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-2019 41
Table 13: Top Four Australasian Fields by Subsea Tree Installations 42
Table 14: Australasia – Subsea Components, 2014-2019 42
Table 15: Eastern Europe & FSU – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-2019 43
Table 16: Top Three East European Fields by Subsea Tree Installations 44
Table 17: Eastern Europe & FSU – Subsea Components, 2014-201944
Table 18: Eastern Europe & FSU – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-2019 45
Table 19: Top Four Latin American Fields by Subsea Tree Installations 46
Table 20: Latin America – Subsea Components, 2014-2019 46
Table 21: Middle East – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-2019 47
Table 22: Top Three Middle Eastern Fields by Subsea Tree Installations 48
Table 23: Middle East – Subsea Components, 2014-2019 48
Table 24: North America – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-201949
Table 25: Top Four North American Fields by Subsea Tree Installations 50
Table 26: North America – Subsea Components, 2014-2019 50
Table 27: Norway – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-2019 51
Table 28: Top Four Norwegian Fields by Subsea Tree Installations 52
Table 29: Norway – Subsea Components, 2014-2019 52
Table 30: RoWE – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-2019 53
Table 31: Top Four RoWE Fields by Subsea Tree Installations 54
Table 32: RoWE – Subsea Components, 2014-2019 54
Table 33: UK – Subsea Capex by Component, 2014-2019 55
Table 34: Top Four UK Fields by Subsea Tree Installations 56
Table 35: UK – Subsea Components, 2014-2019 56Figure 1: Global Subsea Capex by Component 2010-2019 8
Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2014 11
Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region, 1965-2012 11
Figure 4: Offshore Oil & Gas production Surface and Subsea 2000-2020 12
Figure 5: Global Deepwater Capex by Region 2010-2019 12
Figure 6: Oil Price & Demand 13
Figure 7: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2014 13
Figure 8: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/mwh) 14
Figure 9: Natural Gas Prices ($mbtu) 14
Figure 10: Oil & Gas Production versus E&P Spend15
Figure 11: Skilled Workers Age Category 15
Figure 12: Indexed Impact of Price Decline on Energy Sectors Jul 14 to Jan 15 16
Figure 13: Brazillian Offshore Basins17
Figure 14: Deepwater Focus Areas 18
Figure 15: Borghom Dolphin Facility, North Sea 20
Figure 16: Perdido platform in Gulf of Mexico 20
Figure 17: Subsea Processing in Greater Gorgon off of Australia 20
Figure 18: Subsea Flow Meter 21
Figure 19: Subsea Hardware Supply Chain26
Figure 20: Visible Subsea Production Hardware Orders 28
Figure 21: Visible Subsea Production and Processing System Backlog 28
Figure 22: DW Case – Subsea Tree Installations by Category 31
Figure 23: Global – Subsea Capex by Region, 2010-2019 34
Figure 24: Global – Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-2019 35
Figure 25: Global – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 36
Figure 26: Africa – Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-2019 37
Figure 27: Africa – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 38
Figure 28: Asia – Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-2019 39
Figure 29: Asia – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 40
Figure 30: Australasia – Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-2019 41
Figure 31: Australasia – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 42
Figure 32: Eastern Europe & FSU – Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-2019 43
Figure 33: Eastern Europe & FSU – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 44
Figure 34: Eastern Europe & FSU – Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-2019 45
Figure 35: Latin America – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 46
Figure 36: Middle East – Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-2019 47
Figure 37: Middle East – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 48
Figure 38: North America – Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-2019 49
Figure 39: North America – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 50
Figure 40: Norway– Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-201951
Figure 41: Norway – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 52
Figure 42: RoWE– Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-2019 53
Figure 43: RoWE – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 54
Figure 44: UK– Subsea Capex by Component, 2010-2019 55
Figure 45: UK – Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2010-2019 56

Publisher

Douglas-Westwood Ltd